Patience! It’s Not Time Yet

Crazy 8ers,

Don’t panic. You’re not missing the big buy.

Money is flowing to dollar-denominated assets as Ukraine heats up. This is keeping gold and energy indices steady in the face of rising risk (well, actually rising more slowly than they would otherwise).

The US markets do look like they might be considering recovering, but that’s an illusion created by the inverse of what’s happening in commodities.

Flow to dollar-assets is raising the liquidity in the equities pool, but allocation is not being driven by fundamentals.

Big movers are storing cash anywhere that can hold the volume. You can see that because the Nasdaq is varying at a 2:1 ratio (e.g. +.73% vs + .35% for Nasdaq vs S&P500 right now), the USD Index is off by -.57% right now and the VIX spiked yesterday.

This is liquidity sloshing into the dollar-denominated tub. Traffic is too heavy and fast to step off the sidewalk. Wait it out.

ACC

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