Patience is the prescription

Crazy 8ers,

The more I consider this Caliphate in the desert, taken together with what is shaping up to be grim news worldwide for a while, the more certain I am that some artful patience could be just what the doctor ordered.

Ze market, she is crazy right now. She is full to de brim with loose money. She is dashed hither and yon with news from the far reaches of the earth. She has no security and no clear plan beyond, “Wait for it…”

Continue reading

Get out of the market if you’re not already

This jet airliner in Ukraine is the bad news the market was waiting for. If you didn’t already follow my recent advice, you might only lose the last few inches in gains. Otherwise, ouch.

Metals will reach for the sky if the fan gets hit. Oil should spike too. Capital will flee to safety. T-bills should rise. Yields drop. Yellen may have to open the spigots again.

Watch for the attack on the dollar. And watch the China seas. Now’s as good a time as any. There are only two years left to cement gains.

ACC

Panic?

All the indices are down a chunk this morning. Metals are up. Is it time to run for da exits?

Israel v Hamas is always bad for the market. I think people are wondering if this might not be the start of the Big Event.

You know the one, it ends in a groaning zombie apocalypse after WWIII. If so, it probably would be a good idea to take the cream off the top of this delicious beverage of a bull run and go home. Continue reading

The United States is not Great Britain

Recently, I said that being a middle-American in 2014 might not be terribly dissimilar to having been an average Brit as the pound’s rule was coming to an end.

After all, it probably wasn’t too unbearable to have been a citizen of the empire, with income received in the predominant currency. One might learn new languages. Travel can be enlightening. The well-rounded individual is always a pleasure.

However, a friend correctly pointed out to me that America has abundant natural resources in ways Britain never did.

Now, Adam Smith posited that the wealth of a nation could be enumerated in the bounty of its agriculture, mines and fisheries.

The United States has fisheries, mines, (minds!) and agriculture aplenty. We also have available energy.

My friend’s point is well taken.

The U.S. is better off than Britain was at a similar juncture in its history.

So, where to next then, Capt.?

The meanderings of a simple mind

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