In the spirit of accountability, a full 8 months into the year, let’s see how my 2014 predictions are turning out.
The dollar is strengthening and geopolitical risk is priced in (or ignored), effectively depressing the price of gold.
The markets are up on a Monday. Has anything changed? Or, has the news cycle simply turned over?
Jackson Hole announcements are Wednesday. American slow-growth fundamentals are present and shaky. The EU is looking at a cold economic winter.
The current administration has consistently been forthright in its view that long-term solutions in the Middle East (and elsewhere) must be political in nature and that the American military cannot deliver said solutions.
However, I think that approach misses a larger point (which I understand to be roughly analogous to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs), in that basic security is essential before any of the higher order social functions, including political ones, can be undertaken.
Yesterday’s post spawned some private feedback which made me realize that it could have been taken for a general statement about religion as opposed to a specific statement about an emerging state.
To be clear, I have no argument with Islam, per se. It’s foreign to me, so I don’t truly understand it, but I think any belief system can be taken to uncivil extremes of behavior.
Having decided to attack that desert serpent, let us remember that once vanquished, its head must be severed, the carcass burned and the ashes cast to the winds of heaven.
This is simple common sense.